Solution Economics a Week Probability Assignment You are advising an e commerce company that is trying to

Solution Economics a Week Probability Assignment You are advising an e commerce company

Probability Assignment You are advising an e commerce company that is trying to understand how customers behave on their

Solution Economics a Week Probability Assignment You are advising an e

commerce company that is trying to understand how customers behave on their

Solution Economics a Week Probability Assignment You are

Solution Economics a Week

Category: | General |

Words: | 1050 |

Amount: | $12 |

Writer: |

Paper instructions

I want to know the process to the answer, so I can compare with mine1
Economics 240a: Week 1
1.1
Probability Assignment
You are advising an e-commerce company that is trying to understand how customers behave on
their website. The company sells
Three Stooges
memorabilia and has provided you with some sales
data from which you have determined some basic probabilities:
•
There is a 27% chance that a customer will buy a
Curly
wig.
•
There is a 33% chance that a customer will buy a bronze bust of
Moe
.
•
There is a 29% chance that a customer will buy
Larry
boxer shorts.
Some more data processing reveals that:
•
There is a 10% chance that a customer will buy the wig and bronze bust.
•
There is a 13% chance that a customer will buy the wig and boxer shorts.
•
There is a 9% chance that a customer will buy the bronze bust and boxer shorts.
Finally there is a 6% that a customer will buy all three items. Using only the above information,
you need to determine:
1. What is the probability that a customer will not buy anything? (
Hint
: Determine the
probability that a customer will buy one or more items)
2. What is the probability that a customer will buy
exactly
one item?
Show your work using both raw numbers and set notation.
1.2
Conditional Probability and Bayes Rule
The same company is trying to direct tra?c to their sister site-
Lady Stooge
- by posting an ad for
a matching
Lady Larry
camisole and boyshort. The data show that 15% of customers who see the
add will visit the site. 8% of customers who
do not
see the add will visit the site anyway (they hear
about it from an exogenous 3rd party). The
Lady Stooge
site is new, and the advertisement link is
only visible 90% the time.
Hint: You only need the information in this problem to answer the questions. You
can ignore the information in the previous problem
1. What is the probability that a customer will
not
visit the Lady Stooge site?
2. If a customer visits the site, what is the probability they clicked on the Lady Stooge ad?
Show your work using both raw numbers and set notation.
1

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