Solution 1 J S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells but also to determine which
Solution J S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he
Solution J S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types
is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells but also to determine which
Solution J S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts
for three types of his cakes that he sells but also to determine which
Solution J S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to
Solution J S Cake Shoppe
(Solution) 1 J& S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells, but also to determine which

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1 J& S Cake Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes that he sells, but also to determine which forecasting method should be used from now that will be suited for each of the  cakes. His past sixteen months of sales data (in hundreds) are shown in the table below. Past Months Blueberry Muffins Cinnamon buns Cupcakes 1 30 18 43 2 34 17 29 3 32 19 26 4 34 19 23 5 35 22 49 6 30 23 32 7 34 23 20 8 36 25 14 9 29 24 52 10 31 26 30 11 35 27 24 12 31 28 22 13 37 29 55 14 35 31 35 15 34 33 28 16 32 30 26 (b-i)     By plotting the historical sales data of all the three cake types on same graph, please visually suggest the possible forecasting method(s) you may want to consider for each cake type. Please state your reasons. (b-ii)    Blueberry Muffins: Suppose you have restricted your forecasting method to a choice between only Moving Averages (2 or 3 months only) or Exponential Smoothing. Show the analysis you would use to choose ONE of the two methods. [Hint: what is your best alpha; show the graph of your measure of forecast accuracy you used against the various alpha values you tried]. (b-iii)   Using Tracking Signal analysis (with tables and graphs) demonstrate that the method you chose above is indeed good over the past data given for Blueberry Muffins.

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